The same poll raised eyebrows by showing the leader in the replacement contest was little-known Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a minor YouTube phenomenon as an advisor on real estate investment and management. It’s not an exaggeration to say this poll set off alarm bells throughout California politics, exciting Republicans who have wanted to smite Newsom from the day he was inaugurated and helping Democrats convince voters the recall wasn’t some nuisance effort they could safely ignore. Indeed, it showed “yes” on the recall leading “no” by a shocking 11-point margin (51-40). And if you look at the 14 public polls of the recall election in the RealClearPolitics database, only one shows Newsom going down: a SurveyUSA poll for KABC released in early August. PPIC’s latest numbers are virtually identical to how they showed the contest in March (40 percent yes on the recall, 56 percent no) and May (40 percent yes, 57 percent no). Or maybe it’s at least partially an illusion. You can already envision the articles on how Newsom benefitted from recent disclosures about front-running replacement candidate Larry Elder, or from national Democratic efforts to fire up the base via ads featuring Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Given all the recent talk about Democrats potentially losing the governorship of this very blue state, the PPIC survey shows that momentum has swung back to Newsom. The poll shows the effort to recall the governor trailing among likely voters by a hefty 39-58 margin.

The Public Policy Institute of California, a well-regarded public opinion outfit with a tangible Republican lean in their polling history, has just released its final survey on the Newsom recall election in which voting will end on September 14. Things are now beginning to look up for Gavin Newsom.

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